Who will be the king of the next generation?

There have been a lot of articles lately speculating on what the hardware specs and relative performance will be for the next generation of consoles (PS4, Xbox 720, and Wii 2). However, I'm not going to concentrate on specs. I'm going to focus on a set of predictions based on what we see in the market, and what is likely to happen.

Wii 2

Nintendo has the toughest job next generation with the Wii 2, as they have had explosive growth this generation with the Wii, and that kind of success is often hard to duplicate. Nintendo caught Sony and Microsoft off-guard with it's innovative control scheme and low price point and took first place in the console wars; however, that advantage won't exist in the next generation. Microsoft and Sony will no doubt embrace motion controls, and will have even more powerful hardware for pushing not only graphics, but physics, and the number of concurrent on-screen objects.

Xbox 720

Microsoft opted to end-of-life the original Xbox early so as to get a one year head start on Sony and Nintendo, rushing the Xbox 360 to market, which caused considerable woes (RROD); however, they are still maintaining an installed based of roughly eight million more consoles sold than Sony as a result. There's no doubt that Microsoft will want to be first again, and this time I think there execution will be flawless. I believe the Xbox 720 will have a traditional wireless game controller, a wireless motion control scheme, a high definition disc format (BluRay?) and a more powerful CPU/GPU combination. And based on lessons learned from Sony with the concurrent supporting of the PS2 and PS3, they will likely release the Xbox 720 will still supporting the much lowered priced Xbox 360. I think there's a good chance Microsoft could be the undisputed king of the next generation.

Playstation 4

Sony was the king of the last generation and it was surprising to see them fall into third place in the console race in terms of installed base. However, if Microsoft doesn't release a new console soon Sony's position may change. I believe that given enough time, the PS3 will overtake the aging Xbox 360 because of the 360 lacks some of the features that could have extended its life, e.g. a high definition disc format. Additionally, the PS3 now has an online system that is arguably comparable to Xbox Live (XBL), and it's free!!! The PS3 also boasts the BluRay Disc format (25GB-50GB) so games may include many times the content of a DVD9 (9GB), which is currently in use by Microsoft, or a standard DVD (4.7GB) in use by Nintendo. Additionally, there is nothing like PS3 Home on XBL or on Nintendo's Network, and this too makes the PS3 a more compelling offering for some, as its social networking possibilities are tremendous.

Who will be the king?

It's unclear at this point just what will happen. Many of the analysts and bloggers believe that the next generation will be here in 2012, but I still believe Microsoft will release a console by Holiday season 2010. Financially, both Microsoft and Nintendo are in very strong positions to fund the development of their next console. Although Microsoft has the most incentive to get the jump on the market early again.  One thing is certain, all three console makers have a lot riding on the next generation, because for at least one of them, it may be their last.