Monday, August 4, 2008

Are you ready for the next Next-Gen yet?

Have we already reached a plateau with current next-generation hardware?  

Consider the following:
  • Crysis, a game release last year for the PC has to be scaled down in order to port it to the XBox 360 or Playstation 3. 
  • The XBox 360 is already suffering from the lack of a high capacity disc medium, and games like Metal Gear Solid 4 would have to span several discs. 
  • Developers like id Software are complaining about the memory footprint that the current next-gen consoles can support being inadequate which causes developers to spend much more time optimizing the code.
  • Few games are actually rendered at 1080p (or even 720p for that matter...).
When you first heard about the next generation consoles did you picture that the graphics would look like the pre-rendered cut-screens in the games at the time?   Or did you picture the graphics of the Wii?

Nintendo and Microsoft have already admitted that they are working on the successors to their current consoles.  And current speculation is that Microsoft will release a successor to the 360 around November 2009...  I personally think they will release a new system no later than November 2010.  Why?  Because Sony currently has the upper hand with Blu-Ray, and the Wii continues to outsell the XBox 360 (in both the US and world wide).  I also believe that advances in technology and consumer lust for better graphics and gameplay will drive the time down between hardware cycles.  I believe the future cycles will be between 3 and 4 years.

Let me know what you think in the comments section.

3 comments:

Paul said...

I think it's a hard thing to acknowledge about having the hardware cycles short because that would mean the console makers would have(want) to make their profit within those 3-4 years. That we means higher prices for us!

PS3 has the right idea and for the most part good execution and the fall out from the next Wii or Xbox remains to be seen!

Lawrence said...

Yes, this does potentially mean higher prices, unless the console makers move to a more modular console system where the console could be upgraded like a PC.

Paul said...

ah the modular system... I think overall this would still cost us more since we would have to upgrade every few years. The execution of this will be critical to success in the market - the majority of whom do not want to spend a few hundred every few years, and say 'huh?!' to the word Upgrade.